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CAC 40 Trends Lower in the Short Term

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Talking Points:

  • CAC 40 Trends Lower in the Short Term
  • Intraday Support is Found Near 4,834.96
  • Looking for additional trade ideas for equities markets? Read our 2017 Market Forecast

CAC 40 is trending lower, and is set to close down for its 4th consecutive trading session. So far for Tuesday, the Index is trading down -.10%. European markets as a whole are mixed, with German Unemployment data in focus for tomorrows trading. Top winners for the CAC 40 include Carrefour (+1.89%) and Vivendi (+1.30%). Losers for the day include Schneider Electric (-0.48%) and Pernod Ricard (-0.51%).

Technically, the CAC 40 is trending lower in the short term. The Index is currently below its 10 Day EMA (exponential moving average) which is found at 4,866.29. If prices continue to trend lower, the next major point of support may be found at last Friday’s low at 4,806.10. A move below this point would suggest a larger bearish retracement may be in play, against the pairs long term uptrend. It should be noted here that the CAC 40 remains above its 200 day MVA (simple moving average), which is found at 4,592.01.

CAC 40, Daily Chart with Averages

CAC 40 Trends Lower in the Short Term

(Created Using IG Charts)

Intraday the CAC 40 is trading beneath its central pivot, found at 4,854.93. Typically this is interpreted as bearish, and now the Index is challenging intraday support found at the S1 pivot at 4,834.96. If prices continue to decline here, it opens the CAC 40 to test other values of support. This includes the S2 and S3 pivots found at 4,813.23 and 4,893.26 respectively.

It should be noted that if prices rebound, the CAC 40 will need to first breakout above the previously mentioned central pivot. At which point, other intraday values of resistance include the R1 and R2 pivot found at 4,876.66 and 4,896.63.

CAC 40, 30 Minute Chart with Pivots

CAC 40 Trends Lower in the Short Term

(Created Using IG Charts)

— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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