Analys från DailyFX
Currency Trade Ideas in a Manic US Stock Market Environment
- Long term stock market channels and US Treasury Bond pattern
- New Zealand Dollar crosses may reverse
- USDMXN responds to support
Subscribe to Jamie Saettele’s distribution list in order to receive FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
30 Yr. US Treasury Bond Future Continuous Contract (Dec)
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-The 30 Yr. US Treasury Bond future traded above the 7/22 high today and into the day of the July high.
-Price is at resistance but so is the specter of a head and shoulders bottom. Friday’s weak US session urges caution but 131 20/32 (Wednesday low) is the pivot. A push through 135 14/32 would open up a run towards measured levels of 139 14/32 and 140 20/32. These levels coincide with important highs in June.
-Bigger picture, price has responded to the October low and the mentioned measured levels are in line with major support/resistance levels (see below chart).
30 Yr. US Treasury Bond Future Continuous Contract (Dec)
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
Nasdaq Composite and SP 500 Index
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-The Nasdaq and SP 500 are pushing into channel resistance that originates at the 2009 lows.
-The dashed lines are trendlines that connect the origin of a move and first meaningful reaction (defined as more than 6 months of weakness) within that move. The lines identified the final highs in 2007 although the SP 500 did ‘ride’ the line higher for some time. The steep slopes of the current lines denote a manic market environment. A final ‘blowoff’ into these lines is possible.
-The Nasdaq composite would consist of 2 equal legs from the 2009 low at 3921. The SP 500 would consist of 2 equal legs at 1179 (the first legs end at the May 2011 highs).
Trading Strategy: A possible outcome from a bond market breakout (not yet confirmed) and US equity indices at major resistance is a reversal from capital appreciation to capital preservation. In other words, ‘carry’ gets destroyed. Risk levels are outlined in appropriate crosses. I covered this scenario closely in Friday’s DailyFXPLUS video.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-EURNZD decline from the March 2011 high is an ending diagonal. Reversals from these patterns often return to the pattern’s origin (1.9564).
-Price has returned to the 200 day average. Highs from October 2012 and February 2013 are support here as well.
–Divergence with NZDJPY supports a turn at the current juncture. This fractal may help us navigate market swings moving forward as well.
Trading Strategy: I am long now with a stop at 1.6000. Catching a turn often requires several attempts and if this market heads lower then watch for support at the 5/29 low of 1.5873. As always, I’ll track developments in real time through Twitter @ JamieSaettele.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-NZDJPY has responded to the line that extends off of the April and September highs. A key reversal formed on Thursday and an inside day on Friday.
-Gaps can only occur in the FX market over the weekend. When gaps occur, pay attention. The close before the gap serves as a reference point. That level is possible resistance when approached from below and possible support when approached from above. Look to April for an example. The 4/12 gap served as resistance for weeks. The 9/20 close is serving as resistance right now.
Trading Strategy: Flat at the moment…will visit this early next week.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
–“USDMXN has been trading in a broad range since the June high. The pattern may take the form of a 3 point ascending triangle. Such patterns have the ability to produce intense bullish market moves.”
–Dashed trendlines are drawn off of the closes. Solid lines are drawn off of the high/low. USDMXN has rebounded from the trendline that extends off of the closes.
Trading Strategy: Near term resistance extends to about 12.93. A push through on an impulsive rally would suggest that a low is in place. Until then, keep 12.70 in mind as possible support for a turn.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients