Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird
Talking Points
- Kiwi at important cyclical juncture this week
- USD/JPY breaks key support zone
- Gold nearing important directional move
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Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD
This week is shaping up to be important for NZD/USD from a cyclical perspective as a couple of important cycle turn windows are slated. With the rate holding below the first square root progression of the September high on Friday at .8340, the risk in our view is that the correction in place since late September will try to resume over the next couple of days (during the first window). Should this occur it will set up a bigger picture upside trend resumption during the more important cycle turn window expected at the end of this week (and Monday of next week). A daily close above .8340 before then would suggest the Kiwi is resuming its broader uptrend ahead of schedule.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has come under renewed pressure to start the week
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the rate while below the 5th square root progression of the year’s high near 98.60
- The 78.6% retracement of the August to September advance at 96.80 is a downside pivot with weakness below needed to expose attractions at 95.80 and below
- The middle of next week is a minor turn window
- It would take a daily close back above 98.60 to turn the outlook more positive in USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Looking to sell on strength
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD has moved higher since finding support last week near the 12th square root progression of the year’s high in the .9295 area
- Our near-term trend bias remains lower, however, while below the 1st square root progression of the last month’s high near .9435
- A daily close below .9295 is needed to confirm a resumption of the near-term downtrend
- A minor turn window is seen on Tuesday
- A daily close back over .9435 would turn us positive on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: We like selling the Aussie on strength into tomorrow’s turn window.
Price Time Analysis: XAU/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD is in consolidation mode following last week’s rebound off the 4th square root progression of the August high near 1280
- While below 1356our near-term trend bias will remain lower
- Interim support is seen around 1301, but under 1280 is really needed confirm a downside resumption
- Early next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
- A move through the 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1356 would alleviate downside pressure and re-focus higher
XAU/USD Strategy: Might look to sell at higher levels.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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