Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Next Few Days Will Be Key for the Euro

Published

on

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_key_next_few_days_euro_body_Picture_4.png, Price amp; Time: Next Few Days Will Be Key for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY has moved steadily higher over the past few days since finding support near the 38% retracement of the early April advancenear 97.10

Strength back over the 1st square root progression of the year-to-date high in the 98.50 area has turned us positive on the exchange rate

-Focus back on the 50% retracement of 2007 to 2011 decline in the 99.80 area with a close above this level required to spark a more significant advance

-Time cycle analysis indicates that a minor turn window is in effect over the next couple of days

-The 98.50 area is now immediate support, but only weakness below the 97.10 level turns us negative on USD/JPY

Strategy: Favor longs while over 97.10, but want to see 98.80 give way before adding.

GOLD:

PT_key_next_few_days_euro_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Next Few Days Will Be Key for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

XAU/USD continues to consolidate around the 4th square root progression of the the year-to-date low in the 1470 area

-Our bias is lower in the metal while under the key Gann/Fibonacci confluence zone in the 1494 to 1510 area

-The 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date low near 1430 is key support and weakness below this level is needed to signal the start of a downside resumption

-Near-term focused time cycles argue a turn could be seen on Wednesday or Thursday

-A close over 1510 is required to undermine the broader negative technical tone and turn us positive on the metal

Strategy: Like being short Gold against 1510.

AUD/USD:

PT_key_next_few_days_euro_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Next Few Days Will Be Key for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

AUD/USD failed last week at the 2nd square root progression of the year-to-date high in the 1.0380 area and has come under steady downside pressure over the past few days

Our bias remains lower in the rate, but a close under the 88.6% retracement of the March to April advance in the 1.0165 area is needed to maintain the immediate downside tack and expose 1.0115 and below

-Time cycle analysis suggests scope for a turn over the next couple of days

-The 78.6% retracement of the March to April move higher is now immediate resistance

-However, only strength over the 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date high at 1.0280 will turn us positive on the exchange rate

Strategy: We have been advocating a sell on strength strategy, but with cycle turning here we like taking some off the table here.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_key_next_few_days_euro_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Next Few Days Will Be Key for the Euro

Gann often wrote about the concept of the ‘squaring of price time’ which is really just a way of saying that price levels will influence the duration of time of cycles and vice versa. The second half of this week will be 13.7 weeks from the year-to-date high recorded in the EUR/USD on February 1st at 1.3710. Moving the decimal right one place suggests a potential cycle relationship exists here. We will be closely monitoring the rate for signs of a turn over the next few days. The 1.3200/45 area remains a critical resistance area.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

Need guidance managing risk on trades? Download the free Risk Management Indicator.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.