Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

Published

on

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars continued their streak of outperformance against their major counterparts in the overnight session on Thursday, thanks to strong lending data out of China which suggests that the new government has propped up the financial sector as one of its first major initiatives. In the case of the Australian Dollar, the Chinese financing data has proven to be a greater influencer than Australia’s own March labor market report, which disappointed roundly.

Lending in China exploded in March, with New Yuan Loans surging to $1.02T versus $900B expected, from $620B in February, amid the People’s Bank of China expanding its M2 money supply by +15.7% y/y, well-above both the prior of +15.2% y/y and the consensus forecast of +$14.6% y/y. Taken in context of China’s confusing and misleading trade data, there is one discernible trend: domestic demand is starting to improve in the world’s second largest economy. If Chinese data is trending positive now, there is little reason to be bearish on the Australian Dollar: the labor market has made positive strides the past several months (ignoring recent outliers); inflation remains anchored while growth continues to accelerate; and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing bias has dissipated, with no cuts expected the rest of the year.

The Euro is also stronger today, rising to its strongest level since February 28 versus the US Dollar. Figures released today showed that the Greek Unemployment Rate climbed to 27.2% in January from 25.7% in December, further diminishing the likelihood that the Greek economy beings to recover later in the year or early-2014, as many Euro-zone leaders have suggested. Regardless, the EURJPY has climbed to its highest level since January 2010, and the Spanish 10-year bond yield hit its lowest level since November 2010.

Taking a look at European credit, continued compression in peripheral yields has provided support for the Euro. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.417% (-1.1-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.041% (+0.4-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.267% (-3.6-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.598% (-1.8-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:35 GMT

NZD: +1.03%

CAD: +0.53%

CHF: +0.47%

EUR:+0.46%

GBP:+0.37%

AUD:+0.31%

JPY:+0.22%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.32% (-0.38% past 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_7.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_6.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

EURUSD: The Bullish Falling Wedge off of the February 1 and March 25 highs, which broke out positively last week thanks to ECB President Draghi’s comments that there is “no plan B” for the Euro, continues to pay dividends for Euro bulls, and looks to as the middle of April approaches. After breaking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the Jul’12 low to the Feb’13 high at 1.3075, which presented a point of pause as expected, price has surged to its highest level in over a month. The 1.3245/3325 zone (80-pips) should be substantial resistance above, where prices consolidated above in late-December then failed to push through following the inconclusive Italian election results. Declines should be supported by the 8-EMA at 1.3015/20.

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_5.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

USDJPY: No change: “After the USDJPY cleared the descending trendline off of the March 12 and March 20 highs, at 95.00/15, price sky rocketed right up to the topside rail at 99.30/55. This is the same channel resistance that proved to be the top in mid-February and early-March. While topside risks are still in play, with the psychologically significant ¥100.00 figure eyed, sideways price action or a move to fill the week’s opening gap are possible. Accordingly, dips into 97.50 and 96.60 are look to be bought on pullbacks.”

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_4.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

GBPUSD: No change as prices moves as previously forecasted: “While the Bearish Rising Wedge move proved to be a fake out, an upward sloping channel has materialized off of the early-March lows. Recent price action from last Thursday suggests a pennant may have formed on the 1H and 4H time frames, with a test of 1.5440 due by Monday. I remain long-term bearish, but for now, I am neutral.”

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_3.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

AUDUSD: No change as price moves as previously forecasted: “After several failed tests of 1.0475/500, the AUDUSD has broken through today to test the topside limit of the 1.0475/535 zone, in which the descending trendline off of the July 2011 and January 2013 highs lays alongside several key Fibonacci extensions rooted in the rally from the March 4 low. With retail traders fading the AUDUSD’s advance, a break of this key region to the topside is probable, with a clean test of 1.0580/600 in sight. A weekly close above said level could open the door for a move towards 1.0850 in the 2Q’13.

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_2.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

SP 500: The past several weeks I’ve maintained: “This is not a ‘technically strong move. The float higher continues, towards the all-time high at 1576.1, but might be cut short in the 1565/75 zone, where two key Fibonacci extensions lay. Accordingly, the recent pushes up towards this all-time high have seen repeated denials, and conviction certainly appears to be waning.” This view was nullified yesterday upon the break of the 1576.1 level, with new all-time highs set just short of 1600. Overall, I remain very skeptical: between the weak March labor market report, the growing impact of the US budget sequestration on the real economy, and an increased number of Fed policymakers calling for an end to QE3 later in 2013. However, with respect to the technical structure, now that the 61.8% extension off of the late-December and late-February swings broken, the 100% extension comes in at 1625.

Risk_On_Yen_Dollar_Tumble_as_Investors_Crowd_into_Aussie_Euro_Kiwi_body_Picture_1.png, Risk On: Yen, Dollar Tumble as Investors Crowd into Aussie, Euro, Kiwi

GOLD: No change: “Gold broke below trendline support off of the January 2011 and May 2012 lows at 1650 last week, prompting a sharp sell-off into 1600, where price broke out in mid-August before a rally into the post-QE3 high at 1785/1805. However, with oversold conditions persisting on the 4H and daily timeframes, a rebound should not be ruled out; each of the past two daily RSI oversold readings has produced a rally in short order. Resistance is 1625 and 1645/50. Support is 1585 and 1555/60. It should be noted that Gold has entered a major support zone from the past 18-months from 1520 to 1575.”

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.