Analys från DailyFX
Trading Risk Trends in Japanese Yen Pairs with Stock Market Levels
- Short Term stock market levels to time risk trends
- GBPJPY bigger top in the making?
- Monitor USDMXN for support at slightly lower levels
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-After a dip under the August low (the index was actually overlapping with mid-April levels). The DJIA rallied 2.93% in 2 days. This is the largest 2 day rally since 12/31/12-1/2/13.
-Sideways action since May is either a topping formation or consolidation before a fantastic ‘blowoff’ that ultimately ends in tears.
-While in the range however, be aware of the following levels: 15250 and 15382 as near term resistance as well as the line that originates at the November low and 14945 and 14795 as supports.
Trading Strategy: Know these levels in order to time risk trends.
GBP/JPY
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-The line that originates at the November 2012 low came into play as resistance at the 10/1 high.
-The decline from the 10/1 high is impulsive (5 waves). While the drop may could constitute a flat, it would be silly not to consider the alternative given the reaction at the underside of the mentioned trendline and early month high.
-GBPJPY broke below support (red rectangle on chart) on 10/3. Price has advanced in recent days to challenge the level as resistance. So far, that level is holding.
Trading Strategy: Looking for a high on Monday. Resistance extends to 158.70 (10/1 close).
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-The line that originates from the June 2012 low defines the long term trend but the trend since April is sideways.
-NZDJPY ends the week at a Fibonacci confluence; the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the April high and 61.8% retracement of the decline from Sep 19th-Oct 2nd. Friday’s high is also right at the 9/26 high.
Trading Strategy: Exited longs Friday. This market ends the week at resistance but the near term picture is too uncertain to take a near term view. Support is 81.15/50 and resistance is 82.60-83.05. If the market reaches these levels, then I may take action.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
–“USDMXN has been trading in a broad range since the June high. The pattern may take the form of a 3 point ascending triangle. Such patterns have the ability to produce intense bullish market moves.”
–“Thursday’s spike (10/3) probably caps the advance for a bit. Levels to watch for support are the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the rally from the September low at 12.96 and 12.87.”
Trading Strategy: Monitoring this market for support at lower levels. The break of the recent range portends a move towards 12.85. Stay tuned.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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