Analys från DailyFX
USD/JPY-Don’t Forget about the 26 Year Trendline
- GBP/USD downtrend resumption from trendline confluence
- AUD/USD follows through on weekly tweezer bottom
- USD/JPY rips but still below long term trendline
—Subscribe to Jamie Saettele’s distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.
—For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk
EUR/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-Long term comments remain valid – “EUR/USD has been holding its long term trendline support since March 2015 (even the January low is right on the line). November and December trade produced a tweezer bottom (reversal candlestick pattern…bullish in this case) as well. 2 scenarios seem most likely from the current juncture; a continued range (with roughly 1.15 resistance) or a bullish base that leads to an eventual breakout into the 1.20s.”
-Near term, FXTW suggests watching for support on the shorter term median line (bold black line on the chart above) in the mid-1.0600s. The market has been in a tight range since December (in fact, this is the tightest 8 week range since August 2015, when a major breakdown began). Such conditions aren’t conducive to SSI breakout strategies. However, ranges precede directional moves so pay attention to key technical breaks.
-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.
GBP/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-FXTW wrote last week that “cable bounced higher this week but price needs to establish above 1.4400 (see trendline confluence on the chart) in order to suggest that even a short term low is in place.” The underside of the 1985 and 2009 line (which broke 2 weeks ago) and an internal trendline provided precise resistance for downside continuation. The next area of interest on the downside is around 1.40.
AUD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-FXTW wrote last week that “corrective (range bound) trading behavior may very well continue given this week’s tweezer bottom (at the long term median line no less). Divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning too.” AUD/USD followed through on the tweezer bottom this week and the short term charts ‘look’ constructive. If the USDOLLAR is grinding into some sort of top (see a video on this here), then AUD/USD may be the play.
NZD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-NZD/USD was quiet this week and there is no change to prior comments. “The October and December highs create a double top within the longer term downtrend. The red lines on the chart indicate a long term RSI trend sell signal (higher RSI and lower price). The October high remains critical to any bearish interpretation. Like AUD/USD, a period of range trading may be in store given the recovery from under the November low.”
USD/JPY
Monthly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-FXTW has been following a possible head and shoulders top that started forming in December 2015. Last week’s reversal materialized from the neckline of that pattern. This week’s follow through has resulted in a test of the 55 week average. The 2015 high was right at the 1990-1998 line (log scale), so a broader topping formation is still possible.
USD/CAD
Monthly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-The most recent FXTW comments were that “extremely long term slope analysis reveals that the 1976-1991 line, which was resistance (not precise however), could end up as support again on the next ‘correction’. That line is around 1.3600. If USD/CAD is going to ‘correct’, which might it correct from? At this point, I’d watch the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 2002-2007 decline. The Fib is 1.4659.” The high this month was 1.4689 and USD/CAD has reversed sharply. A top of some importance could be in place.
USD/CHF
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here. This week’s advance brings the cross less than 2 big figures away from multiyear highs so another breakout attempt (first one was in November) may be near.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients