Analys från DailyFX
Yen Crosses Hold Near Term Support, AUD/JPY at MAJOR Level
Yen crosses are trending sideways. Currently at support, short term (next week) opportunities are on the long side. Tests of recent highs aren’t out of the question, but much more than is probably asking too much.
Euro / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: The major trend is up and minor trend is sideways/down. Understand that additional sideways/down prices are likely until late stage bulls are cleared out. Major support is estimated at 116.00-117.00 (117.00/25). 115.95 is the 1/2 high, and 117.00/25 is marked by the 1/23 low and the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the November low. Near term, the EURJPY is holding important support defined by the 2/25 large range close (119.91).
FOREX Trading Strategy: It’s possible that the larger bull trend begins from here instead of 116.00-117.00 so looking to go long next week (need to see a hold of today’s low first) but would expect resistance at 123.60-124.50.
South African Rand / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: ZARJPY has corrected into late January levels. Bigger picture, the clean 5 wave advance from the October 2012 low argues for a major multiyear bull market. Calling the end of a correction is always difficult but near term upside is favored towards the top of the channel with price holding Monday’s low for the week. Minor resistance is estimated at 10.350.
FOREX Trading Strategy: It’s possible that the larger bull trend begins from here instead of major support at 9.888 so looking to go long early next week but would expect resistance at 10.4205-4810.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
240 Minute Bars
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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FOREXAnalysis: One reason to be wary of the longer term trend in Yen crosses resuming from the current level is the AUDJPY. The March high 99.97 is in line with the 1997 high at 100.05 (see below chart). The level is reinforced by the channel that defines the advance from the 2008 low (channel is just above price). Near term, there is of course room for a bounce into 98.68 and perhaps consolidation before another high…just don’t get carried away with thoughts of another huge move (not yet at least)….not with the 1997 high, 4+ year channel and round 100 figure in the way.
FOREX Trading Strategy: This is the best Yen cross to short (in my opinion). I’ll be looking for short setups next week. In general, look for a failed rally above 99.00. Keep an eye on the economic calendar; RBA is Monday.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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