Talking Points:
- A Preferred Lineup of Indicators
- Strong Case for Upcoming EUR/AUD Weakness
- 6 Technical and Fundamental Factors to Consider
I’m often asked by retail traders how I go about setting up my chart and which indicators I use. Obviously, there are a seemingly infinite number of choices and variations there, and in the end, there is no one “right” way to do it, however, I prefer to trade using:
- A very short-term moving average (Hull)
- 20-day moving average (MA)
- 100-day MA
- Bollinger bands
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- Support, resistance, and trend lines
- Parabolic SAR (sometimes), which is used to ascertain stop losses
Using these indicators to facilitate analysis, it appears that EURAUD represents a great short opportunity right now. The underlying fundamentals, as well as several technical signals on the daily chart below, all indicate the potential start of a new downtrend.
Guest Commentary: Technical Case for a New Downtrend in EUR/AUD
The following are all factors that support the case for upcoming EURAUD weakness:
- MACD has recently shown declining upward momentum and is now suggests increasing downward momentum. The histogram is showing a new move into bearish territory
- CCI has confirmed price falling into sell territory and has done so with conviction
- Bollinger band is tight with a new break downwards. Constricting bands indicate a possible spike in either direction
- The end of head and shoulders pattern is evident on the chart
- The 20-day MA is starting to fall with price moving below the line, potentially indicating the start of a long-term downtrend
- The Australian dollar (AUD) has benefited from capital flight from China and comparatively higher interest rates. Risk appetite for more diverse currencies is increasing as well
By Josh Brown, Director and Fund Manager, The Alpha Generator