Analys från DailyFX

An Ultra-Nimble EUR/CAD Scalp Trade

Published

10 år ago

11 mars, 2014

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Established Uptrend on EUR/CAD Weekly Chart
A One-Candle Daily Pullback That Poses Problems
The Ideal Time Frame for Buying EUR/CAD

EURCAD is currently in one of those situations where a long trade would be perfectly justified, but yet for certain reasons, it may be premature as well.

As shown below, the weekly chart is in a clear uptrend. In fact, it has been accelerating upwards to boot. Some traders may argue that the current week’s candle is threatening to become a pin, but it is far too early in the week to tell that for certain. As a result, it is best to proceed on the assumption that the established uptrend will continue.

Guest Commentary: EUR/CAD in Strong Weekly Uptrend

The daily chart below is actually where the main worry for this long trade lies. Thus far, the pullback has only been one day long, and while this can certainly happen in a strong uptrend (there are prior examples of this even on the chart itself), a pullback of three or four candles is very much preferred.

Guest Commentary: Possible One-Candle Pullback in EUR/CAD

Because of the one-candle nature of the pullback on the daily chart, a nimbler trade might be required in order to manage this set-up more efficiently, and for this reason, we drop down to the four-hour chart below. Here, we readily see previous levels of support and resistance from which we can determine a zone where price would be expected to bounce.

Guest Commentary: Nearby Support Zone for Buying EUR/CAD

Again, though, because of the doubts that arise on the daily chart, a trade initiated on the smaller time frames is preferred, both in order to obtain greater precision, and to provide ample opportunity to scalp part of the position out, if necessary.

As such, the hourly chart below shows a pullback scenario that is much clearer, and as a result, is much preferred as well. The final support zone is 1.5244-1.5377, which represents a risk of only 33 pips. That is extremely small when considering the prospects for a trend continuation on the daily chart.

Guest Commentary: Narrow Risk Zone on EUR/CAD Hourly Chart

Nonetheless, in the interest of nimbleness and risk, the trigger is best taken on the 15-minute chart (not shown), where traders can keep their eyes out for pin bars, bullish engulfing patterns, and/or bullish reversal divergence as potential long-entry signals.

As always, two or three attempts may be required before price formally turns up. Traders would also be advised to enter using multiple positions so that they will have the option of scaling out should price action turn hostile following the entry.

By Kaye Lee, private fund trader and head trader consultant, StraightTalkTrading.com

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form