Talking Points:
- The Aussie equity benchmark has been stuck in a 160-point rut since May
- At face value that range looks secure
- However, there could, just be signs of a downward shift
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No one tracking the ASX 200’s technical progress can have failed to spot its “super range.”
The Australian equity benchmark has been stuck in a narrow, 160-point trading band since all the way back to May 17. There’s been plenty of volatility within that range, with 13 attempts at the upside so far, but those 160 points have been all investors have had to play with for quite a long time now.
To put the range in context, it’s not actually a bad place to be for the bulls. Yes, its top is 200 points or so below 2017s peak. But it’s till way above the levels from which the index climbed in late 2017.
However, for as long as the range endures investors are stuck with looking for trends within it. At the moment it looks as though the bears are exerting a measure of dominance. Three lower highs are now in place since mid-August. And the ASX is in a downtrend channel which extends from the last of them – September 13’s 5767.3.
If that channel endures then it will in time come up against super-range support. That lies around 5650 and below. On current showing that is of course the point at which we should expect the index to bounce yet again and there seems little doubt that those levels will be the site of some doughty defense.
However, another clear lower high would be a fourth and might at least suggest that the range top has come down a little even if the base holds. Keep a close eye on that falling channel. If it leads to any daily closes around the range base, as opposed to brief, intraday probes, then things might, just be getting interesting.
— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research
Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX