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Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Aussie Dollar rises most in over eight months vs. US counterpart
- Upcoming event risk warns against attempting tactical long trade
The Australian Dollar continues to push upward against its US counterpart, with prices extending to levels unseen in two months and poised to continue higher. The largest one-day gain since early September now looks likely to see follow-through as the pair takes aim above the 0.76 figure.
A daily close above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7632 paves the way for a challenge of double top resistance at 0.7760. Alternatively, a move back below support-turned-resistance at 0.7542 – the 61.8% Fib – opens the door for a retest of the 50% retracement at 0.7469.
Overall positioning continues to favor a bearish bias despite the velocity of recent gains. While that does not rule out a tactical long position, taking one here seems unattractive as major event risk by way of Australian jobs data and the US presidential inauguration loom ahead. Opting for the sidelines seems best for now.
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