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Dollar Hits Three-Month Low, SPX 500 Nearing 2013 Top

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Selloff Continues as Prices Set 3-Month Low
  • SP 500 on Pace to Most Consistent Rally in 7 Months
  • Crude Oil Double Top Setup Still in Play Below 101.00

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are testing through support at 10581, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 10527. Alternatively, a reversal back above 10581 sees the first layer of significant resistance at 10648, the 23.6% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Hits_Three-Month_Low_SPX_500_Nearing_2013_Top_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Hits Three-Month Low, SPX 500 Nearing 2013 Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are on pace to produce the longest string of consecutive daily gains in seven months. A break above rising trend line support-turned resistance at 1831.20 exposes 1847.90, the index’s 2013 closing high. Alternatively, a reversal below support in the 1805.70-20.60 area aims for a horizontal pivot level at 1773.40.

Forex_Dollar_Hits_Three-Month_Low_SPX_500_Nearing_2013_Top_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Hits Three-Month Low, SPX 500 Nearing 2013 Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing above resistance at 1314.51, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 100% level at 1338.17. A reversal back below 1314.51 sees the first layer of support at the $1300/oz figure, a level bolstered by the 61.8% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Hits_Three-Month_Low_SPX_500_Nearing_2013_Top_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Hits Three-Month Low, SPX 500 Nearing 2013 Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 100.73, the December 27 high, hinting a reversal lower may be in the works. Breaking below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 98.96 initially exposes the 38.2% level at 97.48.

Forex_Dollar_Hits_Three-Month_Low_SPX_500_Nearing_2013_Top_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Hits Three-Month Low, SPX 500 Nearing 2013 Top

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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