Talking Points
- US Dollar Recoils Higher from Support at Three-Month Low
- SP 500 Rally Stalls After Prices Soared to a New Record High
- Gold Advance Cut Off at Familiar Rising Channel Boundary
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices bounced from support in the 10449-69 area marked by the June 13 low, the 100% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line set from September 2012. A close above the 76.4% level at 10535 now exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10588. Alternatively, a turn below 10449 targets the 123.6% expansion at 10363.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused after breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1719.60 to set a new record high. Positioning hints the path of least resistance continues to favor the upside, with buyers set to challenge the 76.4% level at 1741.60. A breach above that eyes the 100% level at 1777.10. The 1719.60 mark has been recast as near-term support, followed by the August 2 high at 1709.60 and the 50% expansion at 1701.80.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 1306.88 and surged sharply higher to test support-turned-resistance at the underside of a rising channel set from the late-June swing bottom (now at 1379.89). A break above that initially exposes the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1388.36. Near-term support is in the 1336.79-47.52 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level in play since mid-April and the 38.2% retracement.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices continue to flirt with support at the bottom of a rising channel set from late July. Near-term resistance is at 111.21, marked the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the channel’s top. A break above that targets the 38.2% level at 115.09. Channel support is now at 105.31, with a move beneath that eyeing a rising trend line at 103.32.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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