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Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Idling at Familiar Channel Bottom
  • SP 500 Hovering at One-Year Trend Support
  • Crude Oil Selloff Cut Short, Gold Still Muted

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices started to edge higher as expected after forming a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The bulls failed to push through horizontal pivot resistance at 10718 however, recoiling to retest support in the 10661-71 area (marked by the bottom of a rising channel set from November and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). A break lower initially exposes the 38.2% Fib at 10602. Alternatively, a reversal above 10718 aims for the January high at 10756.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices continue to test support at a rising trend line set from February 2013 (now at 1741.70). This barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1744.60. A break downward initially targets the 100% level at 1725.40. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 61.8% level at 1756.50 on a daily closing basis sees the next upside barrier at 1766.20, the 50% Fib.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at 1267.71, a support-turned-resistance level set from early October. Breaking below support in the 1235.57-43.35 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line, exposes the 38.2% level at 1208.88. Alternatively, a reversal above 1267.71 targets the January 27 high at 1278.72.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices edged lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. Breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 96.31 exposes the 38.2% level at 94.92. Alternatively, a move back above trend line support-turned-resistance at 98.18 eyes the January 30 high at 98.56.

Forex_Dollar_Stalling_SPX_500_Threatening_One-Year_Uptrend_Floor_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Stalling, SPX 500 Threatening One-Year Uptrend Floor

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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