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Talking Points:
- EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Longer-term range still applicable, near-term indications of bearish price action.
- EUR/JPY posed a quick break below ¥120.00, then catching a ‘higher-low’ at 120.14. .
- If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides, they’re free and updated for Q1, 2017. If you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, check out our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) indicator.
In our last article, we looked at resistance showing in EUR/JPY at an area that was previously support around the 121-handle. And given that this happened shortly after a test below the 120-psychological level, the potential for a continuation of ‘lower lows’ and ‘lower highs’ brought along the prospect of range-like price action in the pair to finally yield.
After the open of trading this week, EUR/JPY continued to sell-off after reacting to last week’s resistance; and bearish momentum appeared to continue to gain speed as we tested deeper support levels at 120.14, 119.91 and then 119.30. This was likely driven, at least in part, by a dose of political risk around French elections. But as risk aversion around French elections appeared to soften this morning, support came in on EUR/JPY around an extremely interesting level; highlighting how the prior bullish trend that started after the U.S. Presidential election is holding on by a thread.
After this morning’s support test, buyers came-in fairly quickly around the announcement that French Presidential candidate Francois Bayrou was dropping out of the race in order to further support an alliance with Emmanuel Macron. This seemingly decreased the odds of a Marine Le Pen victory, which has largely been considered a Euro-negative. So this is still very much a fluid, developing situation; similar to Brexit or the U.S. Presidential Election in that matters are due to change very quickly.
From a price action perspective – those looking to trade further Euro breakdown could seek out a short-term setup utilizing the prior batch of resistance, around 120.40 for risk placement, targeting that same prior low around 118.60.
For those investigating bullish stances, they’d likely want to see prices breaking above that batch of resistance at 120.40 to prove that buyers may be able to take control of the situation; after which a support test in the zone from 119.91-120.14 could offer the top-side trigger.
— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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