Analys från DailyFX
EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD
Talking Points
-Missed EURAUD, EURNZD may be potentially one year behind and is setting up
-Cycle analysis may see a turn in AUDNZD
–USDCAD poised for a bullish breakout, some say it’s because oil but USDCAD technical say it all
I can’t tell you what trades I am going to make in 2014 anymore than I can tell you the winning lottery numbers. I can, however, share with you ideas that could become trades at some point in 2014.
EURNZD Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0.
Maybe EURNZD (NZD in general, see next chart) is a year behind EURAUD. A possible head and shoulders bottom has been forming since February 2012. This pattern is longer in duration than the EURAUD pattern that completed this year and therefore potentially more powerful. The pattern would ‘confirm’ above 1.7274. The measured objective would be 1.9583, which is also the 2011 high (1.9564).
From an Elliott perspective, the decline from that 2011 high is an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are characterized by 5 overlapping waves that typically form converging lines (hence ‘diagonal triangle’). The reversal from the diagonal was confirmed on the break of the 2-4 line in December 2012. The objective is the origin of the pattern at 1.9564.
AUDNZD Monthly Close
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
AUDNZD is nearing the bottom of the range that has held since 1979. In general, 1.0500-1.0700 is the support zone. Interestingly, the measured objective from the latest range is 1.0736 (1.1197 – (1.1659 – 1.1197).
Lows (monthly closes) have appeared roughly every 105 months, or 8.75 years. The January 1988 low is 105 months from April 1979. The cycle translated to the left in 1995 and 2002 although another low formed to the right of the cycle in 2005. For what it’s worth, the next cycle low date would be April 2014.
There is not even a possible setup at this point but if a bottoming pattern forms over the course of several weeks or months in 2014, then we’ll at least be aware that it could be significant.
USDCAD, USDNOK, and Crude Oil Weekly Closes
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0.
USDCAD and USDNOK are attempting bullish breakouts to multiyear highs. Measured objectives are 1.1680 and 6.91145. In the case of USDNOK, know that the 2010 high rests at 6.7273.
Many like to cite the most recent move in crude oil as the reason for their bullishness or bearishness in USDCAD and/or USDNOK. I don’t care much for this type of analysis. If I’m trading USDCAD or USDNOK, then I will look at USDCAD or USDNOK. For those that want a story though, then maybe crude is ‘it’. In August, Black gold traded through its 2012 high by $2 and then declined nearly 20% in 3 months. Price has bounced from the line that extends off of the 2012 and 2013 lows. Resistance is seen at 102-104. A break of the mentioned trendline would expose lows from November 2012 and October 2011 at 84 and 77.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients