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EURUSD – A massive decline in the Euro/US Dollar has been met with an aggressive wave of retail FX profit-taking, leaving crowds at their least net-short Euro since it traded to $1.31 in November. A sharp build in crowd selling following the European Central Bank interest rate decision might actually favor a short-term bottom in the EURUSD.
Trade Implications – EURUSD: According to our retail FX data, retail traders have aggressively sold into the Euro bounce off of the post-ECB lows. In the past several weeks our strategy forecasts and sentiment-based trading systems have done well to sell into EURUSD weakness. Yet a significant crowd capitulation warns that the Euro may have set a short-term low, and indeed our Senior Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele points out that the pair has now filled a significant price gap and bounced sharply.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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