What’s inside:
- EURUSD one-day implied volatility at 11.13%, implies 1-stdev range of 11685-11821
- German CPI due out at 12 GMT time, US GDP at 12:30
- Projected daily range-low clocks in near key support, high at resistance
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In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.
EURUSD one-day implied volatility steady ahead of key data releases, projected range-low in alignment with key support
Later today at 12:00 GMT time, we have German CPI due out for September with expectations for it to remain unchanged from August at 1.8% YoY. Just 30 minutes later, Q2 U.S. GDP is expected to be confirmed at 3%. Turning to the options market, one-day implied volatility is relatively tame as today’s data isn’t expected to cause any substantial volatility, but should we see anything significantly outside of expectations then that can change in a hurry.
The daily range calculated from current spot price within one-standard deviation stands at 11685-11821. Of particular interest in terms of where these levels lie on the chart from a technical standpoint, is the projected range-low and solid support just under the 11700-handle. We’ve seen a fairly sizable decline in recent sessions from the ‘head-and-shoulders’ (HS) pattern, but in the short-term selling could be overdone. Should we see a move lower today into the area just under 11700 down to ~11662 we may see buyers step in, with an attempt to bounce to follow. On the top-side the one-day projected high of 11821 aligns with the ‘neckline’ (NL) of the HS formation. The area around 11825 has been tested on numerous occasions and could prove to be problematic if the single-currency is to continue moving lower.
For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.
EURUSD: Daily
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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