Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Forex Strategy: GBP/USD May Dip As Bulls Hit Brick Wall Near 1.6600

Published

on

Talking Points

  • GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Sidelines preferred
  • Former support-turned-resistance at 1.6600 may limit bounce
  • Dark Cloud Cover on weekly warns of larger correction

As noted in yesterday’s candlesticks report the Pound was likely to make a run at the key 1.6600 handle. Given that conviction was not strong enough amongst traders to force the currency to close above the critical resistance level, further gains may be limited. The appearance of a bearish reversal pattern would suggest a quick retracement back towards the 1.6455/60 mark.

GBP/USD: Bounce Encounters Brick Wall

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-May-Dip-As-Bulls-Hit-Brick-Wall-Near-1.6600_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD May Dip As Bulls Hit Brick Wall Near 1.6600

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Drilling down to the four hour chart; the Dojis in intraday trade denote deliberation amongst the bulls as the Pound trades shy of the key 1.6600 handle. A move back below resistance-turned-support at 1.6568 would likely open up a dip back to the 1.6460 mark.

GBP/USD: Bulls Lose Steam As Dojis Descend

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-May-Dip-As-Bulls-Hit-Brick-Wall-Near-1.6600_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD May Dip As Bulls Hit Brick Wall Near 1.6600

4 Hour Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

The ominous Dark Cloud Cover formation on the weekly at multi-year resistance also remains on the radar, and is threatening a more significant correction ahead for the Pound. A potential target is offered by the 23.6% Fib Retracement Level near 1.6350.

GBP/USD Weekly Warns of Weakness

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-May-Dip-As-Bulls-Hit-Brick-Wall-Near-1.6600_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD May Dip As Bulls Hit Brick Wall Near 1.6600

Weekly Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Key Fundamental Event Risk Ahead: Note that upcoming UK economic data may cause price action that negates the technical bias offered above.

By David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM

Follow David on Twitter: @Davidde

To receive David’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.