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Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.8848 (Dec’13 closing bottom), 0.8798 (Dec 27 low)
- Resistance: 0.8921 (23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8966 (38.2% Fib ret.)
Prices continue to range above support at 0.8848, the December 2013 closing bottom. Near-term resistance is at 0.8921, a barrier marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from late January. A daily close above this threshold initially exposes the 38.2% level at 0.8966. Alternatively, a reversal beneath support aims for the December 27 low at 0.8798.
Prices are too close to relevant resistance to justify a long trade on risk/reward grounds. On the other hand, a short position would necessarily presume resistance will hold up, an assumption that is baseless thus far absent a clear-cut reversal signal. As such, we remain flat.
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Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com