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Talking Points:
- USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 101.82 (trend line) 101.39 (Feb 17 low), 100.75 (Feb 4 low)
- Resistance: 102.84 (23.6% Fib exp.), 104.14 (38.2% Fib exp.)
Prices are testing supportat a rising trend line set from early October, now at 101.82. A break lower on a daily closing basis targets the February 17 low at 101.38 and the February 4 bottom at 100.75. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance at 102.84, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposes the 38.2% level at 104.14.
Concrete confirmation of a breakout is absent for the time being, hinting it is premature to enter short just yet. Needless to say, a long position seems less than prudent as prices challenge a five-month support level. On balance, we will continue to stand aside for now.
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Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com