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GBP/USD Bulls Return Following Doji On The Daily

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Talking Points

  • GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Longs Preferred
  • Support level at 1.6660 prompts bulls to return
  • Dojis on the daily and four hour charts hint at a bounce

As noted in yesterday’s candlesticks report the 1.6660 mark was likely to prompt buyers to emerge. With a Doji now having formed on the daily, it looks like the bulls have once again taken control of prices. A push back towards the 2014 highs near 1.6820 may be on the cards, given the absence of a bearish reversal signal on both the daily and four hour timeframes.

GBP/USD: Bulls Return Near Key Support

GBPUSD-Bulls-Return-Following-Doji-On-The-Daily_body_Picture_3.png, GBP/USD Bulls Return Following Doji On The Daily

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Examining intraday price action using the four hour chart; the Dragonfly Doji near 1.6660/80 signaled a lack of conviction amongst bears to push prices lower. With the Pound now probing above the 1.6750 mark in early European trading, an advance on 1.6800 over the remainder of the week looks possible.

GBP/USD: Dragonfly Doji Highlights Hesitation From The Bears

GBPUSD-Bulls-Return-Following-Doji-On-The-Daily_body_Picture_2.png, GBP/USD Bulls Return Following Doji On The Daily

4 Hour Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

This week’s gains for the pound have acted to negate the Dark Cloud Cover formation that had appeared near multi-year resistance for GBP/USD. The rally has arisen following a Piercing Line pattern which signaled the bulls were returning to the Cable. 1.6770 remains a critical level of resistance for the GBP/USD, given it has failed to close above the mark since 2008.

GBP/USD: Bulls Return As Piercing Line Forms on Weekly

GBPUSD-Bulls-Return-Following-Doji-On-The-Daily_body_Picture_1.png, GBP/USD Bulls Return Following Doji On The Daily

Weekly Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

By David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM

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EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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