To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Talking Points:
- NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Kiwi Dollar attempting to rekindle stalled upward momentum
- Risk/reward parameters argue against long trade on breakout
The New Zealand Dollar is attempting to renew upward momentum as prices fight to trigger a test of trend resistance capping gains since September 2016. The pair has been digesting gains near the 0.72 figure but a strong push to four-month highs now looks like it may have follow-on potential.
Confirmation of a break beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7213 on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 50% level at 0.7261, followed by trend line resistance at 0.7288. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 0.7154 exposes the 14.6% expansion at 0.7118 anew.
Even if the break is confirmed, the near-term trading range is a bit too narrow relative to ATR studies to justify getting long from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent until an actionable trading opportunity presents itself.
Have a question about trading NZD/USD? Join a trading QA webinar and ask it live!
