Talking Points
- EUR/GBP turns at Gann resistance
- Euro touches key long-term retracement level
- USD/CAD smashes through resistance
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Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP exhibited some interesting price action yesterday as it reversed sharply intraday from a convergence of the 50% retracement of the August to October decline and the 1×1 Gann angle line of the August high in the .8550 area. The latter half of the week has been a focus time period for us from where a correction could materialize. With Thursday’s failure at key resistance it looks like this move lower is indeed underway. A daily close below .8505 would be further evidence of a top and open the way for a decline into at least the middle of next week. Clear strength through .8550 would invalidate the potential cycle top.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD printed new year-to-date highs early on Friday before encountering resistance near the 1.3830 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline
- Our near-term trend is positive in the Euro while over 1.3655
- The 1.3830 level is an important upside pivot with strength above needed to propel the rate towards the next important attraction at 1.3880/95
- A medium cycle turn window is seen today
- Weakness under the 9th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3655 would turn undermine the immediate positive tone in the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Holding reduced longs over 1.3655. Wary of week-long counter trend move developing from this turn window.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD reversed sharply from Fibonacci support at the start of the week to trade to its highest levels in over a month
- Our near-term trend bias is now higher in Funds and will remain so while above 1.0370
- The 61.8% retracement of the July to Sepetmber decline 1.0445 is an important pivot with traction above needed to expose Gann attractions at 1.0475/85
- A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- A daily close below Fibonacci support at 1.0370 would turn us negative again on Funds
USD/CAD Strategy: Looking to buy USD/CAD on weakness.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 has been in consolidation mode since recording a new all-time high on Tuesday
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the index while over the 4th square root progression of the June low in the 1708 area
- A convergence of minor Fibonacci extensions in the 1758 area is acting as resistance and a move above is needed to expose more important attractions at 1778 and above
- The middle of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
- Interim support is seen around 1730, but weakness below 1708 is really needed to turn the technical picture more clearly negative
SP 500 Strategy: Like the long side while over 1730.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX