Talking Points
- USD/JPY struggles below key Fibo
- GBP/USD meanders below minor retracement
- EUR/USD fails again at key moving average
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 124.70 78.6% retracement of the June/July range
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 123.00
- A daily close above 124.70 is needed to re-instill upside mometum into the exchange rate
- A minor turn window is seen here
- A close back below 123.00 would turn us negative again USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 123.00
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has settled into a range below the 61.8% retracement of the June/July decline at 1.5700
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.5700
- Weakness under 1.5470 is needed to trigger another leg lower in the pound
- A minor turn window is eyed here
- A daily close above 1.5700 would turn us positive on GBP/USD
GBP/USD Strategy: Like short side while below 1.5700
Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
EUR/USD has settled into a fairly tight range to start the week as it awaits some important releases in a few days. Last week’s double failure at the 50-day moving average near 1.1100 keeps the exchange rate in a fairly clear negative technical position ahead of this event risk. The 1.0800 area remains a critical pivot zone as a close below there would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and set into motion a more important decline. However, the contraction in range over the past few months does make us wonder if the market is setting up a bear trap. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily (price action since July) doesn’t help things either, but only a move through 1.1130 would start to turn things more clearly positive for the euro.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX