Talking Points
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY filled the gap from Monday’s open this morning before stalling its advance
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below 124.40
- A key downside attraction remains the December/March closing highs at 121.40
- A very minor turn window is seen Monday
- A close back over 124.40 would turn us positive on rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Like only a reduced short position while below 124.40.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 fell to its lowest level in almost 3-months earlier this week before finding support at the 200-day movingaverage near 2055
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the index while below 2107
- A close above 2055 is needed to set off the next leg lower
- A turn window of some importance is seen early next week
- A daily close back above 2107 would turn us positive again on the SP 500
SP 500 Strategy: Square.
Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD
GBP/USD failed last month at the 50% retracement of the 2014 – 2015 decline near 1.5875. Clear divergences in place on both daily OBV and ROC have warned that a more serious top could be forming, but so far downside price action has proven less than inspiring. The tide could be finally turning, however, as yesterday’s move below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.5675 is the first real negative technical development in weeks and re-focuses attention on the downside. The 200-day moving average around 1.5450 looks to be the next downside attraction of importance with weakness below there needed to confirm a more important shift lower in the pound. Strength back over 1.5790 would neutralize.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX