Talking Points
- Gold takes out key support level
- USD/JPY records new multi-year high
- AUD/USD approaching important cyclical pivot
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY traded to its highest level since October 2008 early on Friday
- Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the rate while over 101.85
- The 100% extension of the September/October decline at 104.55 is important resistance
- A cycle turn window is seen late next week
- Only a daily close below 101.85 would turn us negative on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Favor the long side while over 101.85.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD fell to its lowest level in over three years on Thursday
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8960
- A Gann level related to the year’s high at .8800 is key support with a daily close below needed to prolong the decline
- A medium-term cycle turn window is seen early next week
- Traction over .8960 will turn us positive on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while under .8960.
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
Gold broke and closed below the key 1219 level on Thursday. This move eliminated the positive cyclicality from December 2nd. Given the rather tepid advance off that low we suspected the key pivot would get tested. Focus is now on the year’s low at 1180 ahead of major support near 1155. As for cycles, there is little in the way of turn windows until the end of the month when a Gann 90-day “death cycle” will open the door to a potential reversal. Only a move through the 2×1 Gann angle line of the August high at 1253 would signal the metal has bottomed earlier than expected.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX