This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
USD/CHF:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CHF has traded steadily higher since finding support the week before last at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date high
- Our trend bias is now higher in the exchange rate with focus on the 3rd square root progression of the month-to-date low at .9415
- A close above this level will be further confirmation of a broader developing up trend in the rate
- Near-term focused cycles indicate the latter part of the week will be a minor turn window
- The 2ns square root progression of this month’s low at .9320 is immediate support, but only weakness below .9240 turns us negative
Strategy: Long positions favored while over .9240
NZD/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD continues to meander around the 10th square root progression of the year-to-date high in the .7755 area
- Our trend bias remains lower in Kiwi, but caution is required as the rate nears key long-term retracements below .7700
- Cycles studies are a bit muddled, but a minor turn window is seen early next week
- Immediate resistance is seen at .7805
- However, only strength over the 2nd square root progession of this week’s low around .7860 would suggest a more important shift in trend
Strategy: Flat around these longer-term support levels. May look to go long over .7860.
GBP/USD:
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing last week at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high
- Our trend bias remains lower in Cable with with immediate focus on the 50% retracement of the February to March decline at 1.5355
- A close below this level is required to set up further weakness towards 1.5290 and below
- Cycles studies are broadly negative on the rate into the middle of next month
- The 2nd square root progression of the month-to-date high 1.5500 is immediate resistance, but only back over 1.5630 turns the technical outlook positive
Strategy: Like holding short positons in Cable while below 1.5630.
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
The sharp decline in Gold on Wednesday is a great example of what can happen when key time and price supports are broken just after a cycle turn window. Last week we wrote about the potential for a turn in the metal between June 20-25. The decline did stall during this time period around 1270, but was unable to gain any upside traction back above our key pivot at the 1301 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 advance. As we have noted in the past, a failure to show much reaction at a turn window is often a key development seen ahead of an acceleration in the direction of the primary trend. This looks to be precisely what we got today on the break of Monday’s “cycle low”. This obviously puts the metal in a precarious cyclical position, but with DSI and other sentiment metrics showing extreme negative readings we are still very wary of a potentially violent snapback when this current decline runs its course. Immediate downside Gann levels to watch over the next couple of days are 1220 and 1207.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in GOLD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX