Talking Points
- Low volatility suggests important break looming in the Yen
- GBP/USD stalls below key Gann resistance
- GOLD turn window eyed next week
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has found resistance over the past couple of days near the 2nd square root realtionship of the year’s low in the 102.75 area
- Our near-term trend bias is negative in the exchange rate while under 103.10
- The 4th square root realtionship of the year’s high at 101.35 is major support that needs to be breached on the downside to set up a more important decline
- Another minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- Only a move over 103.10 would turn us positive on the dollar
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 103.10.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has stalled over the past week just below the 17th square root relationship of last year’s low in the 1.6850 area
- Our near-term trend bias is higher while above 1.6710
- The 1.6850 level needs to be overcome to confirm the start of a new leg higher in Cable
- A very minor cycle turn window is eyed early next week
- A daily close under 1.6710 would turn us negative on the Pound
GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.6810.
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
Gold broke under the 1277 1×1 Gann angle line of last year’s low earlier today. A daily close below this level will be especially negative for the metal in the short-term and open the door to further weakness into next week’s key cycle turn window. Key attractions on the downside into this timeframe look to be a Fibonacci confluence near 1260/63 and a convergence of several square root relationships and Gann angles in the 1244/47 area. We would urge caution against getting too negative on the metal as the middle of next should see at least an attempt to turn higher if not a full on reversal. Only unexpected aggressive strength over 1300 would signal XAU/USD has turned earlier than expected.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX