Talking Points
- Cycle turn window here in Gold
- USD/JPY needs to overcome key resistance soon
- USD/CHF extends retracement
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below key Gann resistance at 100.65
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above the 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60
- Traction over 100.65 on a daily close basis is needed to validate the latest move higher
- A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
- Only a daily close below 98.60 would turn us negative on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 98.60.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CHF has come under steady downside pressure since failing a couple of weeks ago at the 61.8% retracement of the September to October decline near .9250
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above .9045
- The .9160 area is immediate resistance, but traction over .9250 is really required to signal an upside resumption
- Thursday is a minor cycle turn window
- A daily close below .9045 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9045.
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
Gold has come under renewed downside pressure over the past few days. With a clear head shoulders looking topping pattern on the daily chart the technical outlook looks fairly ominous for the yellow metal here from a classic technical perspective. However, cycle analysis suggests some caution might be required as the next 48 hours or so are a clear medium-term cycle turn window from where the commodity could try to stage a reversal of some kind. Key support looks to be a convergence of the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low and the 5th square root relationship of the 3Q13 high between 1248 and 1243. A failure to get below the latter on a daily closing basis by Friday would favor a general move higher next week.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX