Talking Points
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has crawled higher since finding support at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s low near 101.35 early last month
- Our near-term trend bias is lower while below 103.10
- A move under 101.35 is required to trigger a more important decline
- The first half of next week is an important cycle turn window for the exchange rate
- A daily close over 103.10 would shift the near-term trend bias higher
USD/JPY Strategy: Square, but may look to get short early next week.
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD remains in a narrow range below the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline near 1.3900
- Our near-term trend bias higher in the Euro while over 1.3730
- A push through 1.3900 is needed to trigger a new leg higher, but traction over 1.3970 is really required to confirm any sort of meaningful strength
- A cycle turn window of some importance is seen next week
- A move under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 will turn us negative on the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.3730 holds.
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD has come under steady pressure since Tuesday’s ‘inside day’ around the Pi cycle turn window we highlighted on Monday. The topping pattern was further bolstered by a head shoulders on the daily. A Fibonacci confluence between 1.0665 and 1.0645 is the next big pivot level with a break under this zone needed to confirm that a more important top is in place. Only a daily close over 1.0830 would invalidate the negative technical picture and refocus higher.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX