Talking Points
- EUR/USD fails at key moving average
- NZD/USD sentiment falls to extremes
- GBP/USD bounces of Gann support
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD stalled again this morning near the 50-day moving average at 1.1170
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.1170
- Last week’s low near 1.0950 remains a near-term pivot ahead of the critical June low at 1.0820
- A very minor turn window is eyed here
- A close back over 1.1170 would turn us positive on EUR/USD
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1170.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD found support last week at a minr Gann level near 1.5330
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the pound while below 1.5640
- Traction under 1.5330 is needed to re-instill downside momentum into the rate
- A turn window of some importance is eyed here
- A daily close back over 1.5640 would turn us positive again on Cable
GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5330.
Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD
The decline in NZD/USD since late April has been remarkably steady with the pair falling some 11 big figures during this time. Not surprisingly sentiment towards the Bird has also deteriorated with the Daily Sentiment Index recently falling below 10% bulls. Historically sub 10% bull readings on the DSI in developed market currencies have been fairly reliable contrarian indicators. In other words when DSI drops below 10% for more than a few days participants are usually getting “too negative” and the potential for a counter-trend move increases. NZD/USD has bounced over the past few days, but so far nothing material has occurred. From out corner it would probably take a move over the trendline connecting the April/June highs around .6825 to trigger any sort of serious scramble.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX