Talking Points
- EUR/USD rebounds just shy of key support
- USD/JPY closing in on long-term retracement
- Gold fails at important Gann level
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has moved steadily higher since finding support at a Gann angle line related to the 2011 low at the start of the week
- Our near-term trend bias is positive in USD/JPY while above 103.35
- A long-term retracement at 105.55 is an important upside attraction and potential point of failure that needs to be overcome shortly if the rate is to embark on a more meaningful move higher
- A very minor cycle turn window is seen Friday
- Only a daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date high at 103.35 would turn us negative on the rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side over 103.35
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the end of last year near the 161.8% extension of the October advance at 1183
- However, our near-term trend bias is lower while below a key Gann convergence at 1243/47
- The 1206 area is interim support, but weakness under 1183 is really needed to confirm a resumption of the broader decline
- A minor cycle turn window is seen today
- A daily close over the 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1247 is needed to shift our trend bias to positve
XAU/USD Strategy: Favor the short side under 1247.
Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
The next couple of days will be an important test for the USD – especially against the European currencies. From a cyclical perspective, the high recorded at the start of the year in EUR/USD looks potentially important. The price action up to now has unfolded pretty much how we expected it would with the pair moving steadily lower while eroding through a key support level at 1.3655. Ideally we would like to see the Euro stay below 1.3655 if our broader topping view is correct, but this is a big ask with both the ECB and US Employment data on tap and a move above this level intraday would not surprise. On the downside, the 3rd square root relationship of the 2013 high at 1.3540 is the next clear attraction and any weakness under this level should set off a more important move lower into the next cyclical turn window around the end of the month. Only aggressive strength through last year’s closing high near 1.3800 undermines our broader view.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX