Talking Points
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Focus Chart of the Day: Gold
The price action in Gold remains perplexing. Following last week’s reversal off the 4th square root progression of the August high at 1279 the metal has been unable to gain much upside traction as advances have stalled out near 1330. With a cyclical turn window seen in about a week’s time and XAU unable to get over 1350 a low of some sort into this window is the favored scenario (for the moment). The big question for us is whether that metal will break 1279 as that would likely trigger a much more dramatic move lower. A daily close over 1350 is needed to re-focus immediate attention higher.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY touched its lowest levels since mid-August yesterday before finding support at the 7th square root progression of the year’s high in the 96.55 area
- While under 98.60 our near-term trend bias will remain lower in the exchange rate
- The 96.55 level is obviously an important downside pivot with a break below needed to trigger more material downside
- A minor turn window is seen today in the rate
- It would take a daily close over the 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60 to turn the near-term trend bias back to positive
USD/JPY Strategy: Looking to sell into strength, but at much higher levels.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CHF fell to its lowest levels since February of last year before finding support at the 10th square root progression of the 2012 high at .8970
- Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the exchange rate while below the 2nd square root progression of the year’s low at .9155
- A daily close under .8970 and the 9th square root progression of the year’s high at .8950 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader downtrend
- A minor cycle turn window is seen on Thursday
- A daily close over .9155 would focus attention higher in USD/CHF
USD/CHF Strategy: Holding existing short positons whilst below .9155.
Price Time Analysis: EUR/GBP
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/GBP has rallied sharply from the Gann cycle turn window identified last week
- Subsequent strength through .8400 has turned our near-term trend bias to positive in the cross
- The 38% retracement of the August to October decline near .8500 is a natural upside attraction
- A very minor cycle turn window is seen on Thursday
- The 1st square root progression of the year’s low at .8420 is important support and only weakness below this level undermines the immediate positive tone
EUR/GBP Strategy: Looking to buy into weakness while above .8420.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX