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Price & Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD stalls below key Fibo
  • NZD/USD fall to new multi-year low
  • USDOLLAR in need of a catalyst

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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price amp; Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USDcontinues to consolidate below the 78.6% retracement of the May range at 1.1330
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.1160
  • Traction above 1.1330 is needed to set off the next leg higher in the rate
  • A turn window of some importance is seen Thursday/Friday
  • A close below 1.1160 would turn us negative again on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.1160

Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price amp; Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD fell to a new multi-year low today
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Kiwi while below .7000
  • Minor support is eyed around .6900 ahead of an importantg Fibonacci extension at .6805
  • A turn window of some importance is seen here
  • A daily close back above .7000 would turn us positive on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Square for now.

Focus Chart of the Day: USDOLLAR

Price amp; Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

The FX markets have clearly been confused over the past few weeks on where USD is headed in a medium-term sense. The price action in the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP AUD) has reflected this with sharp moves recently in both directions. Hopefully today’s Fed meeting will break the directional deadlock and shed some light on where USD is headed. The double failure recently near the 78.6% retracement of the April – May decline puts the index in a negative position heading into today, but we would need to see a close under last week’s low and probably the 61.8% retracement of the May – June advance at 11,790 to get more excited about a material dollar decline. The 50-day moving average near 11,900 looks to be a near-term upside pivot for USDOLLAR.

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Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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