Connect with us

Analys från DailyFX

Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Published

on

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD cyclical picture turning more positive in the next few days
  • EUR/USD has an important turn window at the end of the week
  • USD/CHF falters at key Gann resistance

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_4.png, Price amp; Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

In yesterday’s Price Time (link) we highlighted the cyclical importance of the end of the week (and early next week) in the Euro. This timeframe looks like it could have some significance for a few other pairs as well. AUD/USD in particular looks vulnerable to a reversal around the same time as several short term unrelated cyclical methods converge Thursday Friday. A low of some kind is favored in the exchange rate during this time with focus for the moment on a Gann support zone between .9260 and .9220. We will be closely monitoring sentiment via the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) and momentum through rate-of-change (ROC) for signs of exhaustion to help bolster a reversal signal as currently these metrics are surprisingly only just barely negative. On the upside, only a move through the 3rd square root progression of the October high near 94.60 would suggest the Aussie had bottomed ahead of schedule.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1.3290 50% retracement of the July to October range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below the 6th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.3545
  • Traction under 1.3290 is needed to signal a resumption of the decline
  • The end of the week (and first few days of next week) is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • Any move back through 1.3545 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3545.

Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to its highest level since mid-September last week before encountering resistance at the 4th square root progression of the year’s low in the .9245 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above .9070
  • The resistance at .9245 looks quite formidable and a daily close above this level is needed to signal the start of another meaningful push higher
  • The latter half of the week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A decline below the 2nd square root progression of the year’s low at .9070 would undermine the immediate positve tone in the rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like holding long positions while above .9070.

Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded to its highest level since early September on Tuesday before finding resistance at the 1st square root progression of the year’s high at 1.0505
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0400
  • Traction over 1.0505 exposes a key upside attraction/reaction zone around 1.0585
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen later this week
  • Under 1.0400 would turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: Like holding a reduced long position while over 1.0400.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

on

By

What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

on

By

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

on

By

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.