Talking Points
- EUR/USD approaching key pivot
- USD/CAD trades at highest level in almost 11-years
- NZD/USD breaks July lows
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD continues to consolidate above critical support around 1.0800
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.1100
- A daily close under 1.0800 is needed to set off a more important move lower in the euro
- A turn window of some importance is seen tomorrow
- A daily close above 1.1100 would turn us positive again on EUR/USD
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1100
Price Time Analysis: USD/CAD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD traded at its highest level in over a decade on Wednesday
- Our near-term trend bias is positive in funds while above 1.2980
- A move through 1.3225 is needed to set up a new leg higher in the exchange rate
- A turn window of some importance is seen today/tomorrow
- A daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of yesterday’s high at 1.2980 would turn us negative on USD/CAD
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.2980
Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD
NZD/USD broke below the measured move of the April-June decline around .6500 to record a new low for the year on Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether this is just a simple re-test of last month’s low or a push to more important support around .6400. We tend to favor the latter as the .6400 area marks the 61.8% retracement of the “Global Financial Crisis” low recorded in March of 2009 and looks to be a clear downside attraction for the market. The 261.8% extension of the March to April advance also comes in around .6225 so the lower .6000’s in kiwi is shaping up to be a potentially important medium-term action/reaction zone – especially given the deteriorating sentiment profile. Strength over .6610 would alleviate some of the immediate downside pressure, but only a move through last week’s high around .6735 would turn the technical outlook positive.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX