- AUD/USD approaching cycle turn window later this week
- EUR/USD overcomes key Gann resistance at 1.3325
- Gold meanders around a critical support level
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD overcame key Gann resistance at 1.3325 early on Monday to trade to its highest level in three weeks
- Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the single currency and will remain so while above the 50% retracement of the August to September decline in the 1.3275 area
- The 78.6% retracement of the August to September decline at 1.3380 is a near-term upside pivot, but strength over 1.3425 on a closing basis is required to confirm the start of a more important advance
- The second half of the week is a cycle turn window
- Weakness back under 1.3275 would turn the outlook back to negative in the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like being square here for a few days.
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD overcame the .8175 50% retracement of the year-to-date range on Monday to trade to its highest level since mid-May
- Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Kiwi while over .8115
- The 5th square root progression of the year’s closing high at .8215 is important resistance with a close over this level needed to prolong the advance
- The latter half of the week is an important medium-term cycle turn window
- Weakness under .8115 on a closing basis would turn undermine the immediate positive tone in the exchange rate
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8115
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD continues to meader around the 1×1 Gann angle line of the 2012 closing high in the 1320 area
- While over 1270 our trend bias remains higher in the metal
- The 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is an important near-term pivot with strength above required to reinvogorate upside prospects
- An important cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
- A close below 1270 at anytime will turn the technical outlook in Gold to negative
XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square for a few days.
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD
We have written at length about the potential importance of the early August low in AUD/USD as that time period holds a Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past four years. The successful re-test of this low late last month and subsequent strength back through .9300 is further evidence than an important bottoming process is taking place as is the confirmation of a clear inverse head shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. Short-term cycle analysis favors further strength into the next minor turn window late this week.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in AUD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX