Talking Points
- USD/JPY nearing important resistance
- AUD/USD falls to lowest level in more than three years
- USD/CHF price action over next few days will be important
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has steadily recovered since finding support at the 161.8% projection of the early January decline
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below the 101.85
- Interim support is seen at 104.40, but weakness under 103.35 is really required to signal a downside resumption
- A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- A daily close over 104.85 will shift our near-term trend bias back to positive
USD/JPY Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 104.85.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure since turning lower during the cycle turn window at the beginning of the week
- Our near-term trend bias is lower while below .8910
- The 16th square root relationship of the 2013 high at .8785 is an important pivot with traction below setting up further material downside
- A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
- Only a daily close back over .8910 would turn us positive on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under .8910.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF
Cycle analysis pinpointed the turn at the start of the year in USD against the European currencies. We believe there is a good chance that this turn will lead to a more important USD move higher in the weeks and months ahead. One of the main pairs that we are watching for clues as it has a tendency to be a leader is USD/CHF. The rate made its low for the 2013 on December 27th at the 127% extension of the January to May advance and has moved steadily higher ever since. We view the break and recent successful re-test of the 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 low at .8985 as very constructive. A push through the year-to-date high at .9125 in the next few days should kick off another bout of material USD strength. Unexpected aggressive weakness below .8985 would warn that a more prolonged sideways period is due. Only a daily close below .8875 would completely undermine the positive cyclicality and turn us negative on the rate.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX