Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: USD/JPY Breaks 100
Talking Points
- USD/JPY breaks 100.00
- Euro at critical cyclical juncture
- Gold moves under important Gann support level
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode above the 50% retracement of the July to October advance at 1.3295
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 1.3545
- The 1.3360 area is interim support, but weakness under 1.3295 is really needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline
- Friday to Tuesday is a potentially important cycle turn window in the Euro (we are favoring some sort of low)
- Only a move over the 6th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.3545 would turn us positive on the rate
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3545, but this should be reduced ahead of the cycle turn window.
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Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-September earlier this week before rebounding from just below the .8185 4th square root progression of the October high
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Kiwi while below the 2nd square root progression of last month’s high at .8360
- Traction under .8185 is needed to spark another more important leg lower in the rate
- Today and Friday is a medium-term cycle turn window
- A move through .8360 would turn us positive on the Bird
NZD/USD Strategy: Like being square into the turn window.
Price Time Analysis: XAU/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD closed under the 1×1 Gann line of the year’s closing low at 1277 on Tuesday
- Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the metal
- Focus is now on Gann support between 1248 and 1243 with a move below needed confirm the start of a more important move lower
- The middle of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
- Back over 1322 would shift our near-term trend bias back to positive
XAU/USD Strategy: Stopped out on the close under 1277. Square for now.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
A few weeks ago we wrote about the chart above. It is depicts a simple 61.8% “time retracement” of the advance from the 3Q2012 low to this year’s high. Our main premise was that USD/JPY was becoming vulnerable to a break from the contracting range/triangle that had dictated trading over the prior few months. We believed this because our close observation of markets over the years has shown that long consolidations often terminate around important Fibonacci time relationships. Interestingly since this cyclical “turn window” late last month the exchange rate has marched steadily higher to overcome the upper trend line of the formation over the past few days. An important directional move seems to be developing. We are now focused on Gann resistance at 100.05 and 100.65. A move over the latter looking to be the final piece of the puzzle (with traction above likely setting off a much more impulsive move). Only weakness under 97.60 brings a false pattern break scenario back into play.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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