Talking Points
- USD/JPY holds key support
- EUR/USD tests widely watched moving average
- AUD/NZD approaches Fibonacci confluence
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD probed above the 50-day moving average near 1.1100 yesterday
- Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the exchange rate while above 1.0920
- A daily close above 1.1100 is needed to trigger another push higher in the euro
- A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- A close back under 1.0920 would turn us negative again on EUR/USD
EUR/USD Strategy: Square.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/NZD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/NZD fell to a new low for the month this morning
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the cross while below 1.1070
- A move below a Fibonacci confluence around 1.0900 is needed to prolong the decline
- A turn window of some importance is eyed today
- A daily close above 1.1070 would turn us positive on the cross
AUD/NZD Strategy: Like holding a reduced short position while below 1.1070.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
USD/JPY stalled its advance last week near the 124.40 mid-June high and just under the 78.6% retracement of the June – July decline at 124.70. The technical failure combined with the lack of volume on the recent run up raises concerns about a possible secondary high in the exchange rate. The good news for bulls is that volume has been lacking on the downside as well so perhaps we can just chalk up the lack of turnover to the ubiquitous “summer trading”. Tomorrow’s FOMC decision should be a good catalyst for volatility and hopefully shed some light on direction. The 50% retracement of the June – July decline around 123.10 remains a near-term downside pivot, but it would take a move under a key Gann level at 122.20 to confirm that a more serious decline is unfolding. On the upside, traction over 124.70 is needed to get us excited about a broader upside resumption.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX