Talking Points
- EUR/USD fails again at 50-day moving average
- NZD/USD nearing key support
- Timing relationship at last week’s reversal in USD/MXN
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USDa sharp correction higher on Friday failed again near the 50-day moving average
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.0920
- A daily close above 1.1100 is needed to re-instill upside mometum into the euro
- A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- A close below 1.0920 is needed to turn us negative again on EUR/USD
EUR/USD Strategy: Square.
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USDhas come under renewe pressure following last week’s failed push above .6700
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .6735
- A close back under .6700 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
- A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- A daily close over .6735 would turn us positive on the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .6735
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/MXN
The price action in USD/MXN needs to be watched closely. Last week’s reversal on the back of Banxico’s decision to increase FX intervention has left a top of potentially some importance on the daily and weekly charts. What makes the reversal particularly interesting is the timing of it all as it occurred right around a Pi cycle of 3.14 years from the 2012 high in USD/MXN. (The closing high for the month actually came within one trading day of the May 2012 high) If a more important and drawn out correction against the primary trend is playing out here then 16.4900 should easily hold on any backtest and ideally even 16.2900. Weakness under 16.0000 would help signal that another leg lower is underway.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX