Talking Points
- EUR/USD nearing important resistance zone
- NZD/USD at cycle turn window
- Gold showing signs of a reversal
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD punched above the 61.8% retracement of the October/November decline at 1.3625 earlier today to trade to is highest level in over a month
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on the Euro while over 1.3480
- A daily close over 1.3625 is needed to inspire a further push higher towards 1.3710 and above
- An important cycle turn window is in effect over the next few days
- Only a daily close below the 3rd square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3480 will turn us negative on the Euro.
EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.3480
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-September last week before rebounding from just below the 5th square root relationship of the October high near .8100
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while below .8275
- The .8180 area is interim support, but weakness below .8100 is really required to signal a resumption of the medium-term downtrend
- A cycle turn window is in effect over the next three days
- A daily close back over .8275 would shift our near-term trend bias to positve in the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while under .8275
Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD
In our weekly outlook webinar on Tuesday we spoke at about the possibility for a reversal in Gold as Monday and Tuesday were a potential turning point using one of our “newer” Gann cyclical methods. Interestingly, the low close in the metal was in fact Monday. We recognize that new intraday lows were made in Gold yesterday before the move higher, but intraday action does not negate a turn window. In fact sharp intraday swings are quite a common charactersitic in Gold around turning points. The August high, for example, did something similar and this is a major reason why we analyze the metal on a daily close basis. How important Monday’s cyclical low proves to be now depends on the metal. Key resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1258 with traction above needed to signal that a more important reversal is unfolding here. A daily close back under 1219 would invalidate the burgenong positive cyclicality and refocus lower.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX