What’s inside:
- SP 500 edging towards trying to put together another run
- On a dip from here 2380 is key to keeping market buoyed
- Nasdaq 100 leading the way, the Dow a laggard but in-line with the SP in terms of technical structure
Find out what is driving the stock market in our market forecasts section.
The SP 500 has been consolidating since the last week of April, with the period having set a sturdy floor right around 2380; this level has become our ‘line-in-the-sand’ for maintaining a neutral to bullish stance. Overall, the market looks poised to make another run. The question is whether further side-ways price action will unfold first, or if a new leg higher can commence sooner rather than later. A solid daily close above the recent range will be our cue for sooner rather than later. If the market falls back a bit into the range, again, as long as 2380 holds there isn’t a good reason to abandon a constructive bias.
SP 500: Daily
The Nasdaq 100 has been the leader in the U.S., seemingly going up every day, while the Dow acts as a laggard. As is typically the case, the chart structure of the Dow more closely resembles the SP, but still sits a couple hundred points below its March 1 record high. The horizontal price action (consolidation) is likely to lead to a solid breakout in line with the SP should it break free from its own period of consolidation. A strong down day into the 4/25 gap would be reason for concern, but not until then will we move away from the current neutral to bullish stance.
Dow: Daily
Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.