- EURUSD and USDJPY; mind the gaps!
- Australian Dollar breaking down
- Exploring exotic opportunities
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Daily
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-EURUSD has broken the trend channel that defines action from the July low. My interpretation of this development is that the major trend has turned at least sideways, and maybe down (see last week’s writing on false EURUSD bullish breaks in recent years).
-Significant levels (the channel in the current situation) are sometimes re-tested from the opposite side of the market. The underside of the channel crosses about 1.3475 to 1.3510 next week.
-The previously uncovered 9/13 close was filled on Thursday and the EURUSD made an inside day on Friday. This combination is short term bullish.
Trading Strategy: I do not have a position at the moment. A week or so of upside into 1.3475-1.3510 might offer an opportunity to get short though.
Daily
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-USDJPY traded above 99 (Oct high) and into the previously uncovered 9/20 close on Thursday. There is an uncovered close from the 10/25 close at 97.37.
-Kristian Kerr and I spoke at length about JPY and AUD during a ‘Google Hangout’ on Thursday. Important levels on a daily closing basis are 99 and 96.50 (October range).
Trading Strategy: “This market is coiled for a big move to end the year. Triangles are usually continuation patterns but it’s possible that the eventual break ‘surprises’ to the downside. We’ll trade it either way when it’s ready.” Apparently, the market is not ready. Remember, 96.50 and 99 on a daily closing basis need to be seen before we can even think about participating. Even then, a proper setup is required. What constitutes a proper setup? A break of support/resistance and re-test of that level from the opposite of the market tend to offer the best reward/risk entries.
Daily
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-It is possible that the EURJPY has completed an ending diagonal pattern from the June low. Such patterns often give way to violent reversals and full retracement of the pattern. The action fits so far and
-If an ending diagonal is indeed complete then expect resistance from former lows and the underside of the broken trendline near 132.60.
-Be aware of uncovered closes at 130.56 and 129.66.
Trading Strategy: The target from a completed diagonal is the origin of the diagonal, in this case that is the June low at 124.95. I will monitor for resistance near 132.60-133.20. The 11/6 high at 133.72 is the point at which I would abandon the ending diagonal pattern in this form.
Weekly
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-AUDUSD has followed through on the reversal that ended the week of 10/25. 10/23 was the day of the top and an outside day reversal formed that day.
–Bigger picture, the market broke from a symmetrical triangle the week that ended 5/17/2013. The recent top is just pips from that close level (with an outside day reversal on 10/23) and right at channel resistance.
-The rally from the June low forms 2 converging lines and can be called a pennant. These patterns are often seen in the early stages of large bear markets.
Trading Strategy: Currently short. Original stop was .9550. Stop has been lowered to .9375. .9190-.9300 could produce consolidation / corrective activity.
Daily
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-A triple trendline (one is a channel) confluence has held as support. In Elliott, the decline from the August high would be considered a 4th wave decline. A new high (above 1.5030) is favored.
-Thursday’s bullish reversal supports the call for a significant low.
Trading Strategy: Am currently long with a stop under 1.4050.
AUD/JPY
Daily
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-AUDJPY broke a 2 month trendline in late October. The underside of the line served as resistance for 3 days.
-A weekly key reversal unfolded the week that ended 10/25.
-The market is consolidating around a 92.90. This level has proved an inflection point on several occasions in 2013 (circled).
Trading Strategy: Am currently short with a stop at 93.50 (was tightened to 93.15 intraday). Target area is 90.70-91.00.
Daily
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-USDMXN reversed sharply today. Price remains within what may be an ascending triangle since June.
-Watch for support at recently broken resistance levels at 13.05 and 13.10.
Trading Strategy: Was trailed out of the longs at 13.18 (from 13.10, stop was 13.07) and will revisit long ideas if price shows signs of support near 13.05. The market is in a range…so trade it like a range! Those that front run a breakout will get burned (and probably did today-same goes for USDJPY…or anything).
Daily
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–USDNOK broke above a 3 year trendline in June. The topside of that line was tested as support in September (the test was in the form of a spike on ‘no-taper’).
-This week, price broke through the trendline that crosses the tops (exactly) of 7/5, 9/5, and 10/10.
-Recently broken resistance at 6.0730 is estimated support next week.
Trading Strategy: Looking for a low near 6.0730. If that fails, then this market might return to the trendline (from above).
Daily
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-USDZAR backed off from channel resistance on Friday. The high is also in line with the June high.
-Price made an outside day on Friday.
-It is possible that a significant top is forming (peaks in June, August, and now?)
Trading Strategy: I will turn bearish below Friday’s low.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele