THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has broken down out of the confines of the rising trend guiding prices since the start of the year, warning of deeper losses on the horizon.
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers have now overcome the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 10510, exposing the 50% level at 10397. Near-term resistance is at 10576, marked by the March 11 high and a broken rising trend line set from December 2012. A move back above that eyes the 23.6% Fib at 10650.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to hover above support at a trend-defining rising trend line set from November 2012 (1613.20), a barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1605.90. A break beneath that initially exposes a calling channel bottom at 1583.90. Channel resistance is at 1635.90.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are hovering above rising trend line support set from mid-April – now at 1369.12 – with a break lower aiming for recent swing lows in the 1321.59-38.06 area. Rising channel support-turned-resistance is at 1414.43. This barrier is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1424.23, with a break above the latter level targeting the 50% Fib at 1455.94.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. Alternatively, a move back below the trend line (now at 96.61) aims for the 38.2% expansion at 95.71
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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