Talking Points
- US Dollar Holding at Chart Support, Waiting for Clear Catalyst
- SP 500 Continues to March Upward Toward the 1800.00 Figure
- Gold Aims to Extend Gains, Crude Oil Reversal May be Starting
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 10374, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this barrier targets the 10323-31 area, marked by the June 1 2012 swing high and the 61.8% level. Resistance is in the 10416-24 region, the site of April’s shelf support and the 38.2% Fib, with a reversal above that eyeing 23.6% expansion at 10468.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recovered as expected after showing a Spinning Top candlestick at support marked by a rising trend line set from late February. A break above resistance at 1754.40, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 123.6% level at 1779.80. However, early signs of negative RSI divergence warn of ebbing upside momentum and hint a reversal may be brewing. A move back below 1754.40 sees the first layer of support at 1729.00, the 76.4% Fib.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Resistance is now at 1634.06, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the 76.4% level at 1390.64. Near-term support is at 1342.57, the 50% Fib. A reversal back beneath that eyes the 38.2% Fib at 1321.09.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern at the bottom of a falling channel set from late August, hinting at rebound ahead. Near-term resistance is at 99.77, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that targeting the channel top at 101.59. Channel bottom support is now at 96.27.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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