Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar Holds Critical Support
– US Dollar holds key support versus Yen, Euro, GBP. Watch next moves
– A breakout in the US currency seems possible, opens up a larger advance
– See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators
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The US Dollar has held critical support versus the Euro, Japanese Yen, and British Pound. A break of these key levels could open up a much larger Dollar advance.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro continues to consolidate below major congestion at the $1.10 mark, and a failure here sets the stage for a test of next key support closer to the $1.08 price floor. A break above $1.10 resistance leaves the recent spike high at $1.11 as the next near-term target.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound continues to hold just below major volume-based resistance at $1.5650, and continued failure at this level would keep focus on near-term support in the $1.54-$1.55 range Trading above the $1.5650 mark would open a move towards late-June highs near $1.5800.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has held and traded above key support versus the Japanese Yen at ¥123.50, and continued gains leave focus on major highs closer to ¥126.00. Support remains at major congestion starting at ¥123.50.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar has bounced off of key lows and now trades just below major volume-based resistance at the $0.7400 level. Failure to close above would keep risks to the downside, and near-term support remains at recent lows near $0.7250. A break above $0.7400 would instead target the bottom of a major volume-based congestion range near $0.7600.
GBPJPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
A sharp British Pound rally versus the Japanese Yen leaves it just short of key volume-based congestion levels near ¥195, and trading above said level makes major highs at ¥196 the next logical target. A failure to finish above volume-based resistance would shift our attention towards similar support at the top of a congestion range near ¥193.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has failed to sustain a move above major volume-based resistance at ¥137 versus the Japanese Yen but has likewise held comparable support at ¥135. Our short-term trading bias is effectively neutral until we see a break in the deadlock.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has surged above significant volume-based resistance against the Swiss Franc at SFr0.9650, and subsequent price targets are now the April high near SFr0.9850 and eventually the psychologically significant 1.000 mark. Former resistance is now support at SFr0.9650.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar continues to trade to fresh highs versus the Canadian Dollar, and there remains little in the way of major technical resistance ahead of 10-year highs near C$1.3400. A recent build in volume and price-based congestion leaves C$1.2900-1.2950 as near-term support.
NZDUSD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The New Zealand Dollar’s failure to close above key volume-based resistance near $0.6700 leaves risks to the downside, and our short-term focus shifts towards major lows close to $0.6500. Resistance remains at $0.6700, while a break below $0.6500 opens up a move towards July, 2009 highs near $0.6200.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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