THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is flirting with a completing a meaningful bearish breakout as prices test key support while the SP 500 moves toward the index’s record high.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices pulled back from resistance in the 10547-76 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the March 11 high, to test support at a rising trend line set from late March (now at 10450). A break below that initially eyes the April 2 low at 10391. Alternatively, a reversal above 10576 exposes the 38.2% level at 10643.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance near the 1600 figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion (1595.90) and the April 11 swing high (1597.60). A break above 1600 exposes the 38.2% expansion at 1633.20. Near-term support is at 1537.30, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a drop beneath that targeting the 1500 mark.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke above resistance at 1469.28, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, as expected. Buyers now aim to challenge the 61.8% level at 1504.14, with a further push above that exposing the 76.4% Fib at 1547.27. The 1469.28 mark has been recast as near-term support. A reversal back beneath that targets the 38.2% retracement at 1434.43.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices pushed higher to test resistance at 94.79, the April 10 swing high. A break higher targets the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 96.96, a barrier reinforced by a falling trend line set from late January. Near-term support is at 92.62, the 76.4% Fib retracement, with a reversal beneath that aiming for the 61.8% mark at 91.28.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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